In short, before you assayed the urn (by noting the metal of a money drawn from this), the possibility it was of means 1 was about 66 percentage
Figure 4c shows each of these exact same places furthermore divided in to two portion, symbolizing the comparative percentage of coins that are copper and silver in each of two sorts of urns. Another part is of unit area (= 2/3 A— 7/10), revealing the amount of coins that are both in urn 1 and silver. Another role try of product area 8/30 (= 1/3 A— 8/10), revealing the amount of coins being both in urn 2 and copper. While the final component is actually of product region 2/30 (= 1/3 A— 2/10), showing the percentage of coins which can be in both urn 2 and sterling silver. As might be viewed, P(U1&C) is available by multiplying P(U1) by Pm(C), and thus by multiplying the a priori probability that an urn is of sort 1 because of the possibility that a coin in an urn of means 1 was copper (according to our initial system of this complications).